Japan’s Real Choices

Why Nuclear Was an Option

As the situation deteriorates at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, not a few people are wondering what Japan was thinking when it turned to nuclear power. The country gets 30% of its electricity from nuclear, and aimed to make that 40%. Whatever happens to the Fukushima plant, does this mean the end of nuclear power in Japan?

Not likely, because of the options. There aren’t good ones.

Japan is energy resource poor. It’s an industrial economy – the world’s third largest, behind the U.S. and China – which must import almost all of its energy. All of its oil, all of its natural gas (as liquefied natural gas, or LNG), all of its coal, all the uranium fuel.

While the country has explored renewables, the high variability and low efficiency of current wind and solar technologies make them unworkable substitutes for fossil or nuclear, which can provide power 24/7, on demand. Nuclear was, and remains, the only real protection Japan has against the world price of fossil fuels, and the only large-scale source of non-carbon power, important for a nation that treasures the limited environment of its islands.

If you doubt that, take a quick look at what happened when word got out that several nuclear plants had been sidelined by the tsunami – well before the nuclear units went out of operator control. The LNG market spiked upward, on speculation Japan would suddenly need more and traders could get rich.

And look back to 1997, when many Asian currencies collapsed. I recall a South Korean minister saying that country’s nuclear stations had been key to keeping the lights on, because the cost of importing other fuels suddenly reached critical levels and the nation was running short on money to pay for them.

It is that harsh reality that has driven Japan’s leaders to embrace nuclear power. Nuclear carries risks, yes – but so does everything else. Responsible leaders know there are no panaceas, only balancing of risks and advantages. Nuclear looks like a bad choice now, but will a hugely increased fossil import bill look any better to Japan next year? That will depend on whether power can be restored to the Daiichi site and the crippled reactors brought under control without loss of life.